Orange Bitties

When There’s Nothing Left to Buy: The Coming Bitcoin Supply Shock

May 10, 20254 min read

Imagine a rare tree that produces only 100 magical fruits a year — let’s call them “orange bitties.” For a while, demand hovers around 90 per year, so while these fruits are scarce, they aren’t prohibitively expensive. But one year, something changes. Demand rises to 110, then 130, then 200. There are still only 100 orange bitties. No more can be created. As demand outpaces supply, the price of each fruit soars.

Now, let’s make things even more extreme. Every four years, the tree produces half as many fruits. 100 becomes 50, then 25, then 12.5. Meanwhile, demand continues to rise.

This isn’t just a whimsical story. It’s an economic parable — and a near-perfect allegory for Bitcoin.


Bitcoin: Fixed Supply in an Infinite-Printing World

Bitcoin is the first digital asset with a hard-capped supply: 21 million coins, ever. That’s it. We already know how many there will be. No central bank, government, or tech billionaire can change that. It’s written into the protocol.

Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving” — a programmed cut in the new supply issued to miners. In 2009, 50 BTC were issued per block. Today, that number is just 3.125. In 2028, it will fall to 1.5625. Within 100 years, virtually all Bitcoin will be mined. This is not just scarcity. It’s engineered scarcity that intensifies over time.

Meanwhile, fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar have no cap. In fact, the money supply is expanding at an accelerating rate. From COVID stimulus packages to trillion-dollar deficits, governments are creating currency faster than ever before. More dollars chasing fewer Bitcoin — simple math.

OrangeBitties


We’ve Never Seen What Happens When There’s Nothing Left

So far, Bitcoin has gone through cycles of supply and demand that still allowed for ample trading. Every time price spikes, we hear talk of supply squeezes — but truthfully, Bitcoin is still relatively easy to buy.

That won't always be the case.

As large corporations, institutions, nation-states, and long-term holders (HODLers) continue to accumulate, we may reach a tipping point. A day will come when the number of Bitcoin available on exchanges shrinks to historic lows — when most coins are locked in cold storage, held by those with no intention to sell.

What happens when new demand meets zero available supply?

We don’t know. Because it’s never happened.

But if the orange bitties analogy holds, we can speculate: prices could explode — not due to hype, but because of raw economic force. The moment Bitcoin becomes near-impossible to buy is the moment it becomes priceless to those who need it.


The Demand Curve Hasn’t Even Formed Yet

Today, fewer than 5% of people globally own any Bitcoin. Most don’t understand it yet. Many have been misled. Others are just waking up to the reality of fiat debasement, rising geopolitical uncertainty, and the appeal of digital property that can’t be confiscated or inflated.

Ask yourself:

  • What will happen when 10%, then 20%, then 50% of the population begins to want Bitcoin?

  • What happens when demand becomes cultural, not speculative?

  • What happens when governments begin adding BTC to their treasuries as a hedge?

And yet… the supply remains fixed.

The world is trying to grow demand for something that is becoming exponentially scarcer. That’s not just bullish — it’s historic.


It’s Not Just That Bitcoin Is Scarce — Everything Else Is Inflating

While Bitcoin's new issuance keeps falling, the number of dollars in circulation has never been higher. The U.S. national debt recently crossed $35 trillion, with no signs of slowing down. Inflation may ebb and flow, but the underlying structure — more debt, more printing, more promises — guarantees monetary debasement over time.

So when you’re pricing Bitcoin in U.S. dollars, you’re comparing a finite asset with a never-ending one. The question isn’t “Will Bitcoin go up?” The better question is: What happens to the dollar when it’s measured against something truly scarce?

The answer isn’t just higher prices.

It’s a re-pricing of value.


Final Thought: Scarcity Doesn’t Just Influence Price — It Reveals Priorities

When there’s not enough to go around, people start asking hard questions. What matters most? What do I really want to hold for the next decade?

Bitcoin answers that question in code, in consensus, and in truth: it is the rarest monetary asset ever created.

And the world hasn’t seen what happens when it runs out.


Stay Bullish, Stay Educated. Visit BullishBTC.com to learn how to start stacking.

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